The Improved Leslie Model for population Forecasting
نویسندگان
چکیده
Based on China’s population data from 1953 to 2020, the Leslie model combines fertility rate of women childbearing age by region and age, sex ratio birth population, mortality rate, migration between urban rural areas curve fitting function, application ARIMA predict rates construct a discrete dynamics system in order future development trajectory. The improved Leslie, BP Malthus models were compared terms error rates. was more stable than rest had an average 0.09%, with good generalization ability. results show that predicts total will slowly increase under national regulation policy, reach peak around 2045 then decline.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: ?????
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2410-0870']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.18282/l-e.v10i8.3060